First of all, I would like to thank the conference organizers for inviting me to speak at this important and central event. I was asked to speak about the existential dangers threatening the State of Israel. One danger known to all of us stems from Iran’s nuclear armament program, which threatens to erase the State of Israel from the map.
We cannot underestimate the importance of this danger. However, in my humble opinion, it is less threatening than it appears at first glance. Iran is a nation like all nations; it has an address — we know who it is and where it is. If the rumors are true — that the State of Israel has according deterrence capability, and no less importantly, means of delivering weapons, then there is indeed a danger, but it is a limited one.
The rulers of Iran are often called lunatics, but there is no evidence that this is the case. Iran’s rulers act very rationally. They have goals that indeed oppose our goals, but these are their goals, and they advance them very effectively. The destruction of central Iranian cities is not one of their goals. We certainly need to stand guard, but the fear of Iran’s direct use of nuclear weapons against Israel seems minimal. I allow myself to speak freely because
I don’t know anything that’s happening in the field — perhaps less than anyone in this hall.
However, unfortunately, there is a different danger in Iran’s nuclear armament — more tangible and more threatening, although more indirect. This danger is hidden in the possibility that nuclear technology will be transferred from Iran to terrorist groups such as Al Qa’ida or others — groups whose identities are indistinct, who have no address. Even these groups are not insane; they act consistently, rationally, and sophisticated in order to achieve their goals. But because they have no address, direct deterrence policy is not effective in their case. Thus, if they succeed in obtaining nuclear weapons, it is unclear how we will be able to deter them from using it against us.
These groups, or some of them, are very close in their goals and ideology to Iran. Therefore, this is a great danger in the transfer of nuclear technology and the necessary materials from Iran to these groups. One possibility is that such a transfer would be intended and approved by the Iranian authorities. Another possibility, which is more likely, is that the transfer will not be intended or planned; this is a case of infiltration of radical terrorist elements into the Iranian nuclear system or of a lack of sufficient caution of the Iranian authorities or of a leak or of deliberate smuggling in the lower echelons of the Iranian system — leaks and smuggling that are unauthorized and even unknown to the higher echelons. If such a transfer occurs in one of these two ways, then we will in fact be in substantial trouble. We will not be able to directly prevent these groups to execute their schemes.
Therefore, we must act indirectly by offering appropriate incentives. In my opinion, there are two ways to do this. One is to create strong and tangible motivation for the government of Iran to prevent at all costs the transfer of nuclear technology and materials to groups that do not function under its auspices.
The second and less effective way is to give strong and tangible motivation to these terrorist groups we have mentioned not to use nuclear weapons against Israel, even if they have obtained such weapons. As we have said, this type of deterrence is not easy because these groups have no address, but they have goals and they have an ideological identity, and it is possible to create adequate incentives on this backdrop.
We mentioned two existential threats facing the State of Israel — the direct nuclear threat and the indirect nuclear threat. As we have said, the second danger is greater, and now a few words about a third threat, which is perhaps the greatest of all. It does not come from Iran, nor from terrorist groups, nor from any external source. It comes from within us. “We have met the enemy, and it is us.” Esteemed ladies and gentlemen, your humble servant makes his living from game theory — among other things, very serious games: games of life and death and of existence and annihilation.
The name of the game in game theory is motivation, incentives. Earlier, we discussed the motivations of those standing on the opposite side. Motivating ourselves is the most important thing, and the thing we are losing the most. Without motivation, we will not endure. What are we doing here? Why are we here? What are we aspiring to here? We are here because we are Jewish, we are Zionist, because of our ancient bond to this land; we aspire to realize our 2000-year-old hope of becoming a free nation in our land, the Land of Zion and Jerusalem.
Without this profound understanding, we will not endure. We will simply no longer be here; Post-Zionism will finish us off. About half a year ago in Petra, Jordan, the prime minister said that we are tired. He was right. He was elected by the nation, and he expresses the sentiments of the nation. We are like a mountain-climber that gets caught in a snowstorm; the night falls, he is cold and tired, and he wants to sleep. If he falls asleep, he will freeze to death. We are in terminal danger because we are tired.
I will allow myself to say a few unpopular, unfashionable words: our panicked lunging for peace is working against us. It brings us farther away from peace, and endangers our very existence. I think it was Churchill who said, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” The preparation includes material preparation, a fantastic army, effective tools of war, but above all, we are talking about spiritual preparation, about spiritual readiness to go to war.
Roadmaps, capitulation, gestures, disengagements, convergences, deportations, and so forth do not bring peace. On the contrary, they bring war, just as we saw last summer. These things send a clear signal to our “cousins” [Arab and Muslim neighbors-ed] that we are tired, that we no longer have spiritual strength, that we have no time, that we are calling for a time-out. They only whet their appetites. It only encourages them to pressure us more, to demand more, and not to give up on anything. These things stem from simple theoretical considerations and also from straight thinking. But it’s not just theory: it has been proven and re-proven in the field over thousands of years. I returned today from a trip to India, where we heard about historical stories that illustrate the same.
Capitulations bring about war; determination and readiness bring about peace.
Ladies and gentlemen, we must tell our cousins that we are staying here. We are not moving. We have time; we have patience; we have stamina. Understand this and internalize it. And we must not simply say it to our cousins but feel it within ourselves. This and only this will bring peace. We can really live in peace and unity and cooperation with our cousins. But only after they understand and internalize that the Zionist state will be here forever. Thank you very much.
Prof. Israel Aumann is a Nobel Prize Laureate and Chairman of the Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
