The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center, and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs. He is a member of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East spme.org
Since February 2005 there has been a formal cease-fire in the war initiated by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat more than four years earlier. Nevertheless, the Palestinian terror war against Israel continues. This situation cannot be understood without looking at it from the point of those who find terrorism so politically rewarding and acceptable in terms of Palestinian politics.
Any would-be Palestinian terrorist can take the following for granted:
His attack will be encouraged by the official Palestinian media and by PA-appointed and paid clerics in their sermons.
He will not be stopped by PA forces.
If he succeeds in killing Israelis he will be praised by PA institutions, the ruling Fatah group, and the Palestinian media.
If he is captured or arrested by Israel the PA will demand his release.
After an attack he will not be arrested by the PA. In a few high-profile cases attracting Western pressure he will be placed under house arrest and soon allowed to “escape.”
If he is killed the PA will make him an honored martyr.
If he is a member of the ruling Fatah group, it will not criticize, expel or punish him.
Whatever he does, including the brutal murder of Israeli civilians, he will still be welcome to join the PA payroll as a security man. If as a member of the security services he commits a terror attack, he will not be fired.
Given all these factors it is not surprising that Palestinians, including members of Fatah and the PA security services, continue to plan and carry out terrorist attacks on Israel. During the five months between the February 8 cease-fire decision by the Palestinians and July 8, Palestinians carried out 812 attacks on Israeli targets. In thousands more cases attacks were disrupted by Israeli arrests, security efforts or defensive operations.
Some attacks take place in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Others are aimed at Israel itself, though a higher proportion of these are blocked. The type of attacks include shootings at Israeli civilians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, the firing of mortars and rockets, assaults on homes and economic targets, as well as against Israeli forces organizing the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
What makes the situation even more ironic is that the main factor reducing the number and effectiveness of attacks inside Israel has been the security fence so strongly opposed by the PA. If the fence did not exist, given the PA’s own lassitude in blocking terrorism Israeli casualties would be much higher.
As a result, while Palestinians succeeded in carrying out 21 suicide bombing attacks in 2001, 40 in 2002, and 16 in 2003, in 2004 they succeeded in perpetrating only six. Correspondingly, Israeli casualties dropped from 453 killed during 2002 to 118 killed in 2004. It is important to note that these dramatic reductions took place before there was any cease-fire agreement, though since then these numbers have fallen further.
Again, though, this result is not due to a lack of effort on the part of terrorists, or the extent of effort by the PA itself. In April, May and June 2005 alone, 21 Palestinian children under the age of 18 were caught at Israeli checkpoints trying to smuggle bombs, guns, or ammunition into Israel.
REMARKABLY, nearly half (47 percent) of the attacks since the cease-fire have been claimed by Fatah, the ruling group in the PA, into whose hands the international community now proposes to place $3 billion in aid. To date, no Fatah official, member or security force employee has been punished, expelled, or fired for involvement in almost 400 attacks.
These are important indicators of the current situation, vital for Westerners to be aware of.
Without such understanding, Israeli actions are robbed of their motivation and necessity, making Israel seem to be acting irrationally, arbitrarily and purely out of cruelty. For example:
Israeli roadblocks are necessary because of ongoing attempts to smuggle in explosives and arms to kill Israelis. The use of children and women for these purposes requires careful searching of these people. This is the cause of delays or blockages Palestinians must suffer. If there were no attacks, there would be no roadblocks, or even Israeli forces in the lands ruled by the PA.
The security fence is necessary to block ongoing attacks the PA does not itself stop. This is why the fence is being built.
The attacks inhibit Israeli withdrawals not because Israel wants to keep these territories but as a defensive measure. If there were no attacks, Israel could easily pull back to the 2000 lines and turn over more territory in the West Bank to the PA.
Continuing casualties on the Palestinian side are due to the continuing war conducted by Palestinian political organizations. If the Palestinians stopped all attacks on Israel, Israel would not conduct any operations against the Palestinians. But the opposite point does not hold true: even when Israel stops all military operations against the Palestinians, the attacks continue.
The refusal or inability of the PA to stop attacks is a significant factor making Israeli leaders and the public doubt PA willingness or ability to make real peace. Continuing terrorism is one of the main problems blocking progress toward a comprehensive resolution resulting in an independent Palestinian state.
While Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has major domestic difficulties in effectively stopping the terrorism, the problem is enhanced by his political strategy of refusing to try.
