The Mubarak Regime has collapsed and the voice of the people has been heard. The ramifications for Egypt and for the Middle East will be more powerful than the impact of Arab-Israeli wars. But even with the uncertainty about the future one thing is certain: We are witnessing Osama bin Laden’s nightmare.

What comes next is, first and foremost, for Egyptians to decide, and whatever happens, it is the Egyptian people who will have to live with the consequences.

Understandably, however, Americans are watching events with awe mixed with concern. We are divided between the exhilaration of watching peaceful public empowerment in pursuit of the values Americans hold dear and fear of the consequences for U.S. interests in the Middle East. The future of the U.S.-Egyptian relationship, the Israeli-Egyptian relationship and the power and design of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have consumed the lion’s share of the debate about U.S. interests.

But the biggest of all interests has been largely ignored: The power and pride that the peaceful masses exhibit in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities are Bin Laden’s worst nightmare. Peaceful masses, not the murder of innocents, overthrew a regime most thought was entrenched. If the demonstrators fail to fulfill their aspirations, it will be America’s nightmare.

Consider this: For at least two decades, we have known of the widening gap between governments and the public in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world. The puzzle was never “When will people have reason to revolt?” but always “Why haven’t people revolted already?”

In seeking to overthrow Arab governments, long before the 9/11 horror, Al Qaeda leaders, including the second-in-command Ayman Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor, told the Arab people to take on the seemingly overwhelming power of the state – with bloody attacks against its symbols. The Al Qaeda leadership insisted that militant Islam was the way. No one else seemed to have an answer.

Enter the Tunisian people and now the Egyptian people – in some of the most extraordinary peaceful non-ideological revolts in history. If they succeed, Al Qaeda may remain a force, but its public appeal will ring hollow. If they fail, the energy, the mobilization, the taste of pride and empowerment, will not go away – but could be channeled somewhere else. These forces could turn into Egypt’s and the world’s nightmare.

Even aside from the compelling moral stance, the United States has every interest, first and foremost, in making sure that uprisings and the military response to them remain peaceful, and second, to see that legitimate public aspirations are met.

The most important national security threat to the United States remains Al Qaeda and its allies; and the outcome of the Egyptian uprising will have a decided bearing on energizing or weakening these groups and their message.

Looking ahead, we are facing the unknown – and no one can trust analysts’ predictions in revolutionary times. Analysts, social scientists among them, are trained to predict the future on the basis of the patterns of the past. That’s precisely how social science is conducted. That’s why most analysts fail to predict profound change in history – by definition a break from the past. It also explains why no one saw the scale or timing of the events in Tunisia and Egypt. And no one can predict with confidence the outcome of the Egyptian revolution.

An era has ended for sure, but what the new era will look like remains a mystery.

But a few things are clear. First, public empowerment is here to stay as the information revolution is only expanding and its impact is increasingly clear. No future government of Egypt can fully ignore its public sentiment or take it for granted – whatever form it takes.

Second, the Egyptian military institution will likely continue to play a central role in Egypt through the transition and beyond. It remains trusted by most Egyptians – though this could be tested in the coming days -, in part because it will be needed for state security, and in part because Egyptians have a sense of a leadership role in the region that they cannot envision without a strong military.

Whoever ultimately emerges on top politically in Egypt will likely have to co-exist with a strong military-akin to Turkey in years past. The military will likely be the most important thread connecting Egypt to national security policies – which are likely to remain anchored in a cooperative relationship with the U.S. and maintaining the peace with Israel, since this is a mutual beneficial arrangement.

What is most likely to change is that Israeli-Egyptian relations will not be collaborative as in recent years, because the Egyptian public remains angry with Israel over the Palestinian issue. Any new Egyptian government is less likely to give automatic support for U.S. policies in the region-in the same way that Turkey, our North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, responded to its public opinion in refusing to cooperate with the United States in the 2003 war in Iraq.

As for the Muslim Brotherhood, they are obviously neither the diver nor the central player in the unfolding uprising, which has taken on the theme of “Egypt above all.” Like any political group in Egypt, they are likely to look for their opportunities. No one can tell how successful they may be in a truly open electoral competition. Though it is clear they could have done better if the choice was merely between them and the ruling National Democratic Party than with far more choices.

What is clear is that, whoever governs Egypt, and whatever their aims and preferences, they will have to co-exist with a military that will likely remain strong and a newly empowered public that’s at the core seeking liberty.

It’s a risk worth taking when you consider that failure to try will make Bin Laden’s case.

Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

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