The current discussions about the future of American foreign policy in the Middle East touch directly upon Israel-U.S. relations. U.S. policymakers, however, have not yet given enough consideration to the unprecedented weight that the European Union increasingly exerts in the region. In the case of Israel as well as on other U.S. fronts, no durable progress is reachable without the agreement, not to say the active involvement, of the slowly uniting Europe.
A historic window of opportunity may be brought on by the development of the EU over the past decades, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East to include a nuclear threat, and the volatility of the U.S. role in the region. In view of this, the United States should realize the strategic value of gradually integrating Israel into the European Union. Although a full membership is not in the cards at the moment, the EU becoming Israel’s second closest strategic ally, alongside the U.S., is in everybody’s best interests. Over the next decade or two, relations between the U.S., the EU and Israel should be progressively formulated anew.
Despite America’s significant role in facilitating Israel’s just struggle to survive, it has failed to ensure the county’s lasting longevity and independence. Regardless of the Bush administration’s intentions, Israel’s strategic position has deteriorated on multiple fronts. It is still the most powerful in terms of military might, but present day Israel has to rely on America more than ever before in order to secure its political standing and its military superiority. Most tragically, Israel’s peace offerings of its scarce land to Egyptian and Palestinian neighbors have not led it to better integration into the Middle East. The current Iranian nuclear threat only materializes a wider, existential fragility that Israel has failed to eliminate.
Although the U.S. still has the power to exert a unique leverage that no other outside party can, it is becoming clear that in order to stabilize the Middle East, the U.S. simply cannot go it alone. Increasingly, the EU complements and in some cases, assumes, the U.S.’s traditional third party role in the region. For example, on the macro level, the EU took on a leading role in the Middle East Quartet and as chief negotiator with Iran, and on the micro level, the EU has an active presence in southern Lebanon and Gaza, and has, on several occasions, attempted to revive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
Europe has a clear interest in stabilizing its backyard and it can offer incentives and exert leverages the U.S. cannot. Nevertheless, the dialogue between Israel and the EU lacks strategic vision and sincere willingness to work together. In dealing with Europe, Israel is preoccupied with planning preventive measures instead of embarking proactively in shaping its future. The EU, still heavily engaged in solving internal crises, cannot follow through its own foreign policy initiatives. Only the U.S. can help both parties to “shift gears.”
Such paradigmatic change in course will involve the creation of a durable transatlantic Middle East policy that will introduce new rules to the region’s game. With the required massive financial, political and military investment, all pragmatic Arab countries would be encouraged to work together with Israel toward an agreed-upon settlement. Creative solutions may include offering NATO-like regional security guarantees, the establishment of sustainable economic incentives, and multilateral territorial swaps.
It is doubtful whether the current U.S. administration, alongside weak leaderships in the Middle East and an unfocused EU, will be able to promote such an ambitious agenda. But in order for this positive dramatic shift to assume shape over the next generation, now is the time to start preparing the ground.
Raanan Eliaz, former Coordinator at the Israeli National Security Council, is currently a Ph.D. candidate at the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium, and a consultant on European-Israeli Affairs.
