http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=29289

Time to face facts about the Palestinian movement: it is falling apart. There is no able leader today. And the glorification of violence, disdain for compromise, and deep factionalism whose seeds Arafat planted have now come close to destroying it.As a result, the Palestinian leadership will be unable to develop a viable strategy for peace or getting a state. No order will be established in the Gaza Strip. The moderates will not be able to change any of this, they will probably be afraid even to try.Yet the world hardly seems to notice what is going on. Rhetoric continues to be about “helping the moderates,” brokering peace through road maps, or just blaming Israel for the lack of progress.The latest sign of disaster is the resignation of Palestinian Authority (PA) Finance Minister Salam Fayad, a former International Monetary Fund official. He has been portrayed accurately as the most honest man in the PA, trying to curb corruption and create a system of accountability. Fayad’s presence made donors believe they could give money to the PA without expecting it to be stolen or wasted. Fayad quit over the type of problem that has always bedeviled PA relations with Israel and torpedoed any hope of peace: the movement’s refusal or inability to meet its commitments. The PA had promised that it would not raise its payroll of officials to levels that it could not afford.

Note that the PA has not engaged in any serious economic development work during its 11 years of existence partly due to its use of that income which was not stolen to support a bloated bureaucracy. And the reason for that policy was political: to buy off a large portion of Palestinian society so it accepted the PA’s rule. Now with an election looming, the PA wanted wage increases that would be impossible to pay for. For Fayad, this was the last straw.

Meanwhile, the PA, Fatah, and “President” Abu Mazin (Mahmud Abbas) do nothing serious to prepare for elections that are now less than a month off. Not a finger has been lifted to fight corruption or to impose order in the Gaza Strip. Why should Palestinian voters support such an incumbent regime? We see the same old arguments that everything is Israel’s fault, that the real problem of the Gaza Strip is the sonic booms from Israeli planes rather than anarchy and the continuing cult of violence.

Now that the Palestinians control the Gaza-Egypt border — which seemed an unreachable dream when it was demanded by Arafat a dozen years ago — one more excuse has been removed in practice. Yet nothing changes the Palestinian litany of complaint and the willingness of many in the West to echo it. Still, the illusions are gradually wearing away that there is any hope for peace or effective Palestinian moderation.

The next big developments in this direction may be soon at hand. The first is the final round of Palestinian local elections in December. Not only are these likely to see further advances by Hamas but a final count can be made of how much power is held by that Islamist group. Ignore the number of overall seats or how many town councils each side controls. Focus on the number of Palestinians who will now be under Hamas local rule which will probably exceed forty percent.

This is supposed to be followed by the general Palestinian parliamentary election scheduled for less than eight weeks from today. There are increasing signs that Abu Mazin is going to postpone the voting. His supposed complaint is a demand, which contradicts the Palestinian parliament’s decision, that all seats be distributed on a proportional basis rather than half that way and half by local districts. Such a position seeks to ensure a result that favors more his Fatah organization.

But that issue covers up two points that are even more worrisome for him and the rest of the PA and nationalist leaders. First, they have not been able even to form their own list for the elections, given the number of competing factions and personal ambitions involved. There could be no clearer sign of their movement’s hopeless disunity. Second, they know that a general election’s outcome would be disastrous for them. Even if they manage to secure a majority, Hamas is likely to do very well, changing the historic course of the Palestinian movement even though it will not attain a majority.

Hamas is clearly running on a platform of destroying Israel and escalating terrorism. See, for example, http://www.pmw.org.il/asx/PMW_Hamas.asx, a Palestinian Media Watch summary

of a half-hour Hamas film or dozens of interviews given by Hamas leaders. What would happen if Abu Mazin cancels the January election? The internal situation would worsen even more. Hamas, angry at being denied a chance to gain power, will try to prove its militancy by increasing terrorism against Israel which will make it even harder to have stability or economic development. And the deeper suspicion between Palestinian nationalists and Islamists may also bring a civil war. Within Fatah itself, canceling the elections will be seen as a way of keeping all the power for the establishment faction against grassroots’ activists.

Without accurately evaluating the collapse of the Palestinian national movement-a situation which will probably continue for many years — it is impossible to understand the region’s current problems and options.

The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of Turkish Studies journal. He is a visiting professor at American University and a member of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East spme.org