http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2009/p31e.html#head4
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (31)
With the popularity of Abbas and Fayyad declining sharply and the popularity of Haniyeh and Hamas increasing significantly, the public becomes more hawkish and pessimistic about the peace process and the overwhelming majority believes Palestinians after the war on Gaza are worse off than before the war
5-7 March 2009
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5 and 7 March 2009. The poll was conducted several weeks after the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip. The poll period witnessed return of Palestinian factions to reconciliation talks sponsored by Egypt. The poll examines the following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, the peace process, and the Israeli elections. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
Table of contents:
1)Domestic Palestinian Conditions
2) Peace Process
3) Israeli Elections
Main Findings:
Findings of the first quarter of 2009 indicate a significant increase in the popularity of Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas and decease in the popularity of president Mahmud Abbas and Fateh. They also indicate a significant decline in the status and legitimacy of Salam Fayyad. Despite these findings, Fateh’s popularity remains higher than that of Hamas. The two most important factors shaping public attitudes regarding these issues seem to be the Israeli offensive against Gaza, particularly the performance of Abbas and the government of Fayyad during the war, and public perceptions of the end of Abbas’s term in office and hence the loss of legitimacy suffered by the Fayyad’s government.
Findings also indicate a negative shift in Palestinian public attitudes regarding the peace process as the percentage of those willing to compromise goes down and the percentage of those supporting the peace process goes up. The public takes a hardline view regarding resumption of negotiations before Israel freezes settlement construction.
All this comes within a highly pessimistic context with a rise in the belief that a Palestinian state is not going to be established within the next five years and the majority expecting the electoral victory of the right wing in Israel to lead to the failure of the peace process and to an increase in settlement expansion.
(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions
- If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas, the former receives 47% of the vote and the later 45%.
- But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins with 61% of the vote compared to 34% for Haniyeh.
- Popularity of Hamas increases from 28% in our December 2008 poll to 33% in this poll while the popularity of Fateh drops from 42% to 40% during the same period.
- Decline in the popularity of Abbas and Fateh reflects a decline in the percentage of popular satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas from 46% three months ago to 40% in this poll. Moreover, positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government declines from 34% to 32% during the same period while positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh’s government increases significantly from 36% to 43%.
- Despite the visible increase in the popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh, the overwhelming majority (71%) says that given the outcome of the Israeli war on Gaza, conditions of the Palestinians today are worse off than they were before the war, while only 11% say conditions today are better off than they were before the war. 17% say conditions have not changed.
- Similarly, Hamas’s call for the establishment of a new representative body that can serve as an umbrella for the resistance groups receives the support of only one third of the Palestinians while 57% say that the PLO should be maintained.
- The largest percentage (46%) believe that the most important priority for Palestinians today should be the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 28% say it should be the return to quite and the opening of Gaza crossings and 25% say the top priority should be the reconstruction in the Gaza Strip.
- If Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 63% of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the tightening of the siege and boycott while an additional 19% say current conditions of boycott would remain the same and only 12% say a Hamas electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott.
- Similarly, if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 47% of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 23% say current conditions would remain the same but only 24% say a Hamas victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity.
If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas, the former receives 47% of the vote and the later 45%. Three months ago, Abbas received 48% and Haniyeh 38%. But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins with 61% of the vote compared to 34% for Haniyeh. Three months ago, Barghouti received 59% and Haniyeh 32%. Decline in the popularity of Abbas and Fateh reflects a decline in the percentage of popular satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas from 46% three months ago to 40% in this poll. Moreover, it seems that public perception of the ending of Abbas’s term in office is leading 27% to believe that the legitimate president today is the Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, and 24% to believe that there is no legitimate president today, while only 39% believe that the legitimate president today is Abbas.
Findings indicate that the popularity of Haniyeh is higher in the West Bank (50%) than in the Gaza Strip (44%). The opposite is true for Abbas; he is more popular in the Gaza Strip (50%) than in the West Bank (41%). Haniyeh is more popular among women (53%) compared to men (41%) while Abbas is more popular among men (51%) than women (40%). Haniyeh is also more popular among those who describe themselves as “religious” (57%) and less popular among those who define themselves are “somewhat religious” (38%). Abbas on the other hand is more popular among the “somewhat religious” (55%) and less popular among the “religious” (35%).
Haniyeh is more popular among those opposed to the peace process (82%) and less popular among those supporting the peace process (35%). Abbas is more popular among supporters of the peace process (5%) and less popular among those opposed to the peace process (14%). Haniyeh is more popular among those over 47 years of age (55%) and less popular among those between the ages of 18-27 years (46%). On the other hand, Abbas is less popular among those over 47 years of age (35%) and more popular among all those younger than that, for example, reaching 50% among those whose age is between 38-47 years. Haniyeh is more popular among the illiterates (56%) and less popular among those with a BA degree (43%). Abbas is more popular among those who have a BA degree (50%) and less popular among the illiterates (34%). It is noticeable that Abbas popularity increases considerably among those employed in the public sector (72%) while Haniyeh’s popularity is very low among this group declining to 23%. Finally, as expected, Haniyeh is very popular among Hamas supporters (96%) while Abbas is very popular among Fateh supporters (90%). Among those voting for other parties, Abbas receives 51% while Haniyeh receives 36%. Among the undecided, Abbas receives 27% and Haniyeh 37%.
Popularity of Hamas increases from 28% in our December 2008 poll to 33% in this poll while the popularity of Fateh drops from 42% to 40% during the same period. The gap between Fateh and Hamas reaches 12 percentage points in favor of Fateh in the Gaza Strip but reaches only 3 percentage points in the West Bank, also in favor of Fateh.
Moreover, positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government declines from 34% to 32% during the same period while positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh’s government increases significantly from 36% to 43%. In the competition over legitimacy between the governments of Haniyeh and Fayyad, 35% say Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one while only 24% say Fayyad’s is the legitimate one. Thee months ago, 28% said Haniyeh’s government was the legitimate one and 30% said Fayyad’s government was the legitimate one.
Despite the visible increase in the popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh, the overwhelming majority (71%) says that given the outcome of the Israeli war on Gaza, conditions of the Palestinians today are worse off than they were before the war, while only 11% say conditions today are better off than they were before the war. 17% say conditions have not changed. In the Gaza Strip, the percentage of those who believe that Palestinians are worse off today reaches 79%.
Moreover, despite the decline in the popularity and status of Abbas and Fayyad, 25% say conditions in the West Bank are good while only 7% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good.
Similarly, Hamas’s call for the establishment of a new representative body that can serve as an umbrella for the resistance groups receives the support of only one third of the Palestinians while 57% say that the PLO should be maintained.
The largest percentage (46%) believe that the most important priority for Palestinians today should be the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 28% say it should be the return to quite and the opening of Gaza crossings and 25% say the top priority should be the reconstruction in the Gaza Strip. In the Gaza Strip, belief that Gaza reconstruction should be the top priority stand at 21% only compared to 27% in the West Bank.
Findings show that the belief that the top Palestinian priority today should be the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. But is more widespread among men (51%) than women (42%), among the “somewhat religious” (53%) compared to the “religious” (40%), among those holding a BA degree (51%) compared to the illiterates (33%), among employees (56%) compared to housewives (40%), and among Fateh voters (54%) compared to Hamas’s (40%).
Finally, Fateh’s greater popularity compared to Hamas’s reflects public perceptions regarding possible implications of election outcome on two major issues that seem to influence electoral behavior more than any other issue as we saw in our last poll in December. These two issues are the ending of siege and blockade and the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Current findings indicate the following:
– if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 63% of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the tightening of the siege and boycott while an additional 19% say current conditions of boycott would remain the same and only 12% say a Hamas electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott. By contrast, if Fateh wins new presidential and legislative elections, only 11% say that such outcome would lead to the tightening of the siege and boycott and an additional 24% say current conditions would remain the same, but the majority (61%) says a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott. It is worth noting that the belief that a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege increases significantly in the Gaza Strip reaching 76% and decreases to 52% in the West Bank.
– Similarly, if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 47% of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 23% say current conditions would remain the same but only 24% say a Hamas victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity. By contrast, if Fateh wins new presidential and legislative elections only 31% say that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 26% say current conditions would remain the same, but 37% say such a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity. It is worth noting that the belief that a Hamas electoral victory lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip split increases considerably in the Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank (56% compared to 42%) while the belief that a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity increases significantly in the Gaza Strip reaching 47%% and decreases to 31% in the West Bank. Belief that Hamas’s victory in the next elections would consolidate separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is stronger in the Gaza Strip (56%) compared to the West Bank (42%), among residents of refugee camps (54%) compared to residents of cities (44%), among men (49%) compared to women (46%), among the “somewhat religious” (54%) compared the “religious” (40%), among those whose age is between 18-27 years (51%) compared to those whose age is over 47 years (42%), among refugees (53%) compared to non-refugees (42%), among those holding a BA degree (50%) compared to illiterates (35%), among employees and students (55% each) compared to farmers and laborers (28% and 38% respectively), among those working in the public sector (59%) compared to those working in the private sector (46%), and among Fateh voters (67%) compared to Hamas voters (32%).
- 50% of the Palestinians agree and 48% disagree that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Support for this mutual recognition stood at 53% and opposition at 46% three months ago.
- 73% of the Palestinians think that chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel in the next five years are non-existent or low
- 58% support the Saudi Plan and 39% oppose it; in December 2008, 66% supported the plan and 30% opposed it.
- 54% of the Palestinians support and 42% oppose armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel. Three months ago, support for such attacks stood at 48% and opposition at 49%.
- 38% of the Palestinians support and 58% oppose return to Palestinian-Israeli final status negotiations before an Israeli freeze on settlement activity.
Findings indicate a decline in public support for the peace process. For example, support for the Saudi initiative (which calls for full Israeli withdrawal from occupied Arab land and the establishment of a Palestinian state in return for a peace agreement with Israel and a normalization of relations between Israel and all Arab countries) drops from 77% three months ago to 58% in this poll. Opposition to the plan stands today at 39% compared to 30% in our last poll in December 2008. Moreover, willingness to accept mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of all problems of the conflict drops from 53% three months ago to 50% in this poll.
Findings also indicate that the overwhelming majority (73%) believe that the chances for the creation of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel during the next five years are slim to non-existent while only 24% of the Palestinians believe the chances are medium or high. Three months ago, these percentages stood at 70% and 29% respectively, indicating an increase in the level of pessimism.
Findings also indicate an increase in public support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel from 48% in December 2008 to 54% in this poll. Opposition to armed attacks today stands at 43% compared to 49% three months ago. Support for armed attacks against Israeli targets increases in the Gaza Strip (67%) compared to the West Bank (47%), among the “religious” (59%) compared to the “somewhat religious” (49%), among those whose age is between 18-27 years (61%) compared to those whose age is over 47 years (53%), among those holding a BA degree (59%) compared to illiterates (52%), among students and employees (67% and 63% respectively) compared to merchants and housewives (37% and 51% respectively), and among Hamas voters (70%) compared to Fateh voters (45%).
Finally, Findings show that a majority opposes return to Palestinian-Israeli negations before Israel freezes settlement construction while 37% support return to negotiations despite continued Israeli settlement construction. Opposition to return to negotiations before freezing settlement construction increases in the West Bank (61%) compared to the Gaza Strip(53%), among men (66%) compared to women (50%), among those holding a BA degree (66%) compared to illiterates (48%), among employees and students (66% and 61% respectively) compared to laborers and housewives (53% and 51% respectively), and among Hamas voters (69%) compared to Fateh voters (47%).
- 70% of the Palestinians think that there is no difference between Israeli right-wing parties and parties of the center and left; 26% think that there are differences between them.
- Only 7% expect that negotiations with the new Israeli government will be more successful in ending settlement expansion and bringing peace, and 62% expect settlements to continue to expand and peace efforts to fail. In this regard, Findings show
Findings show that a majority of Palestinians (70%) believe that there is no difference between the various Israeli parties of the right, center and left when it comes to the peace process while 26% say there is a difference. They also show a widespread pessimism regarding the chances of the peace process after the electoral victory of the right in the latest Israeli elections with 62% saying that the outcome of the elections will lead to increased settlement activities and a failure for peace efforts. 28% expect current conditions to remain unchanged and only 7% expect negotiations to succeed in ending settlement construction and achieving peace.
Belief that differences exist between the various right wing, center, and left wing Israeli parties increases among women (30%) compared to men (23%), among supporters of the peace process (30%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (16%), among those whose age is between 18-27 years (35%) compared to those whose age is over 47 years (20%), among illiterates (29%) compared to those holding BA degree (21%), among students (37%) compared to employees (23%), and among Fateh voters (33%) compared to Hamas voters (21%).