GS Don Morris, Ph.D., Wingate Institute and California Polytechnic Institute : Solutions to Iran’s Treachery, September 12, 2006

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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said:

Our dear Imam said that the occupying regime must be wiped off the map and this was a very wise statement … Our dear Imam targeted the heart of the world oppressor in his struggle, meaning the occupying regime. I have no doubt that the new wave that has started in Palestine, and we witness it in the Islamic world too, will eliminate this disgraceful stain from the Islamic world …‘This regime that is occupying Qods [Jerusalem] must be eliminated from the pages of history.’ This sentence is very wise. The issue of Palestine is not an issue on which we can compromise. Is it possible that an [Islamic] front allows another front [i.e. country] to arise in its [own] heart? This means defeat, and he who accepts the existence of this regime [i.e. Israel] in fact signs the defeat of the Islamic world. In his battle against the World of Arrogance, our dear Imam [Khomeini] set the regime occupying Qods [Jerusalem] as the target of his fight. I do not doubt that the new wave which has begun in our dear Palestine and which today we are also witnessing in the Islamic world is a wave of morality which has spread all over the Islamic world. Very soon, this stain of disgrace [i.e. Israel] will vanish from the center of the Islamic world – and this is attainable.”1,2

Iran continues to also abuse the world’s only international body, the United Nations. It has refused to honor any of the resolutions written to force it to cease pursuing a nuclear bomb. Its leadership has sworn to eliminate Israel; suggests that the Holocaust did not happen; and it creates and supports proxy terrorist groups. Furthermore, it funds more than its share of groups committed to the destruction of the West and instilling Sharia Law in states that our grand children will live.

I do not value their way of life nor do I support a form of Islam that has tenets contrary to my own beliefs and I am willing to stand up for our democratic freedoms. However, this will require a monumental effort on the part of millions of people who are like-minded. Have you noticed that the West’s identified enemy does not concern itself with political correctness? Its leadership uses our concept of freedom of speech against us. In turn, we refrain from speaking the truth for fear of offending fellow citizens and our enemies. Meanwhile, in Iran today, the government closed down two opposition and reformist newspapers.3 So much for “free speech” at home!

Iran can and will be stopped from trampling upon our culture and disrespecting what we hold to be dear. There are a multiple of options and each requires courage to implement and perseverance to secure victory. By no means does there appear to be a single answer to stopping Iran’s march toward nuclear armament. However a collection of the following suggestions can and will contain Iran’s actions. We must be willing to think and operate “outside the nine dots”-please simply “try on” the following ideas, critique them and share your thoughts with others and me.

· The West needs to form a new coalition, along the lines of NATO that demonstrates a collective will and mechanisms for challenging sovereign nations and/or groups who verbalize the demise of one of the participating parties and/or takes such an action. Stand united at a major press conference and indicate enough is enough. State that you believe in western values, you are no longer going to be blackmailed inside each respective country and that you are putting “on warning” insurgent groups everywhere in the world.

· Agree to hold any sovereign country responsible for terrorist militias, groups etc that attack any of the aligned western countries.

  • Impose economic sanctions immediately by identifying the services and products that are produced or managed by this new coalition and place these products and/or services under sanction for any country calling for our demise.

Specifically, place all spare parts for any military product under restriction; cancel all current military related product orders; place all oil related parts, from drill bits to transfer lines under restriction; freeze all tourist and student visas from countries directly engaged in stating our destruction and/or those countries serving as homes for said groups.

  • Within each of the coalition countries gather the top 20 (each country decides how many) business leaders and indicate that the business world is being asked to generate a plan to isolate terrorist countries without diminishing our respective economies. Once each country creates a plan, hold an international meeting of all these representatives and recreate business rules to support the West’s economy. Invite India and China as well as Russia to provide counsel to the suggested plan.
  • Tell the major energy companies they have 5-10 years (they decide) to develop and implement energy sources other than oil from the Middle East. Provide financial incentives to each participating government’s companies as well as to Middle East countries who support us.

The majority of Iran’s income is derived from its oil industry. Fortunately, Iran has not done a very good job diversifying its income streams and this is to our advantage. We should attack this now.

We possess the following information: Iran’s oil fields are ageing and doing so because of lack of investment in this arena. Hence, my suggestion previously to curtail any and all oil related parts and products to Iran. This action will require that the USA, Norway, and Mexico make it financially and product availability profitable for China and India to support these actions. In addition the USA must broker a deal with Russia enabling Russia greater access to the USA world of commerce. We need Russia, China and India ‘s resolve in order to ensure that Iran cannot cut a deal with any of these countries. I mention that we must have the cooperation of Norway, Mexico and I now suggest Nigeria to increase output given that Iran will respond, in kind, to these sanctions by threatening to reduce oil production and/or actually cut their production. Please understand that Iran cannot afford to suspend production for any length of time, this is its primary income flow. Therefore, I do not see this is a “weapon” that Iran can use-we should call their bluff on this one.

Concomitantly, this new coalition must have a naval flotilla inside the Persian Gulf. The Gulf is connected to the Gulf of Oman in the east by the Strait of Hormuz. This is necessary if Iran decides to shut down shipping lanes. The second part is for the coalition to blockade this same area and not allow incoming cargo carrying ships destined for Iran.

We know right now, without any of these actions in place that Iran is going to miss its 2010 production target by 500,000 -a million barrels per day (bpd) due precisely to their ageing oil fields. According to National Iranian Oil Company managing director Gholam Hossein Nozari, “The main challenge of OPEC number two oil producer, Nozari said, was “maintenance of oil reservoirs or increasing the recovery rate”. 4 Clearly Iran is vulnerable with its oil production and ability to deliver it to market. There are many additional tactics that can be developed ranging from hurting their ability to ship, deliver and process their oil fields. My main point is simple: Attack their ability to wage war, to fund terrorism and to develop a nuclear bomb and its resultant arsenal-attack their income source!

· Strike a deal with the gulf countries that process Iran’s oil into gasoline-some 40% plus of Iran’s national gasoline is processed outside the country-another vulnerability

· OPEC has indicated its concerns regarding the falling oil prices: “Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries arriving in Vienna on Sunday have indicated concern that oil prices may fall. “ 5

· Set in motion, via the new coalition, setting restrictions on spot market price loading within the oil industry. This may take the form of legislation or some other form of action. Evidence mounts that the increase in per barrel oil price is due to oil speculators rather than the natural forces of supply and demand. For example, comparing worldwide oil use and availability, one discovers no significant increase in either during the last 18 months. Take care of this issue and you further weaken Iran’s income stream

· Announce that each coalition country is providing financial incentives to its respective populations via tax relief if the country meets a 5% reduction in oil energy needs. Create a climate within each country to ensure conservation of energy. More on this concept in another piece. This announcement alone will drop the price per barrel of oil several more dollars. Yes, again hurting Iran’s income stream flow.

Hopefully you have been willing to stay with this piece to its conclusion. You all may have the 28 reasons why the general idea won’t work, or why specific components of my plan won’t work. Of course you are entitled to your thoughts and beliefs. However, I know this-operating daily out of a mind-set that offers only the reasons why things can’t or won’t get done, produces the same results-nothing is accomplished but you were right about it!

We cannot afford this kind of thinking! I live next door to a country (Iran) dedicated to wiping us (Israel) off the face of the earth-Israel is a small democratic country that has served my native country (USA) well for decades. You might say I, and others, here in this tiny country that fits inside New Jersey, have a vested interest in finding a solution to the Iranian Problem. We would prefer one that did not include war. When I lived in California I felt safe and protected from all the ugliness occurring in the Middle East. Then, on September 11, I realized how vulnerable the entire Western culture had become.

We have once again been told and even warned-death and destruction will befall Israel, the USA, and all other like-minded cultures. Our enemies have delivered on their promises, some of us not only heard but we are listening intently. Please take courageous steps to stand up for what you believe. I discovered long ago the importance of asking what is it that you would be willing to die for on “the hill”? Without question our enemy has clarified what their answer is, I know what mine is! Consequently, when someone presents an alternative idea that has merit and/or promise, I ask how can we make this happen-time to get into action.

End Notes

  1. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12790.htm
  2. Aljazeera web site http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/15E6BF77-6F91-46EE-A4B5-A3CE0E9957EA.htm
  3. “Iran closes down two reformist papers”, Associated Press, Sep. 11, 2006
  4. “Iran to miss 2010 oil output target, Iran to miss 2010 oil output target,” Gulf Research Center-Business Bulletin AFP August-29-2006
  5. Carola Hoyos, “Opec concerned over falling oil prices”, The Financial Times Limited 2006

GS Don Morris, Ph.D., Wingate Institute and California Polytechnic Institute : Solutions to Iran’s Treachery, September 12, 2006

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