http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1112316.html

Later this month, between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, U.S. President Barack Obama will take the podium at the United Nations General Assembly and, flanked by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, declare the resumption of the Middle East peace process.

He will set an ambitious goal: to achieve, within two years, a “comprehensive regional peace” that will end the Israeli-Arab conflict and replace it with new and friendly relations between the states and peoples of the region. In contrast to his immediate predecessor, George W. Bush, who instructed the parties to talk and asked only that they report to him on the results, Obama intends to be involved: His emissaries will sit in the conference room and put forward compromise proposals and solutions.

Obama will have to work hard to persuade people that with him it will be different, that peace is possible, that a Palestinian state will be established, that the Syrians will return to the Golan Heights and Israel will dwell in the region in safety – and all of this by September 2011.

After another decade of wars and disappointments, it’s tough to sell the “New Middle East” in a new wrapping to cynical populations that have long since lost all belief in impassioned speeches promising peace and change. But Obama’s declaration will have immediate strategic importance. By presenting a two-year timetable for the peace agreements, the president will make it clear that dealing with Iran is more urgent than establishing an independent Palestine alongside Israel.

That will be a major diplomatic achievement for Netanyahu. In his visit to the White House in May, the prime minister’s main aim was to persuade Obama of “Iran first and the Palestinians afterward.” It was convenient at the time for Obama to present a disagreement with Netanyahu in order to strengthen U.S. credibility in the Arab world. One hundred days later, it turns out that on the crucial issue – setting the foreign affairs agenda – Netanyahu’s view prevailed.

Next year, 2010, will be the “year of Iran.” The Palestinians will have to wait their turn and pass the time in empty talks until Iran is restrained. Under the quid pro quo principle, in return for advancing action on Iran, Netanyahu agreed to freeze construction in the West Bank settlements for a period of nine months, according to leaks from his talks with U.S. envoy George Mitchell.

Netanyahu will have to play a delicate political game with Israel’s right wing. It’s a safe bet that the dismantling of outposts will be removed from the agenda, on the grounds that preserving internal cohesion against Iran is far more important than violent, media-intense spats with the settlers on the West Bank hilltops.

Back in May, Obama seemed like the messiah heralding historic change in America and in its relations with the world in general and Muslims in particular. Obama projected hope and change, while Netanyahu looked like a throwback, a musty, right-wing nuisance who was wasting the president’s time talking about “natural growth in the settlements.”

This week the Washington columnists competed with each other to write the gloomiest forecasts of the political hell awaiting the president when he returns from his vacation in Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. As the summer progressed, Obama had a serious marketing slip: He lost his focus. His astonishing ascension to power rested on a clear and focused message: I represent change, I don’t look like Bush or talk like him. Now, though, despite the signs of economic recovery, Obama is plunging in the polls even faster than previous presidents this early into their terms.

In regard to the two main issues on his agenda – national health care and the war in Afghanistan – Obama is struggling to explain his goals to the American people. His rivals are conducting an effective campaign against health care reform. The president will address Congress next week in an effort to save his initiative and not reprise Bill Clinton’s failure in trying to expand health insurance. The situation in Afghanistan is no less desperate. The polls show that most Americans don’t understand the purpose of the war and don’t believe victory is possible. The mounting casualty rate is rapidly eroding public support for continuation of the war.

Responsible adult

While Obama was sinking, Netanyahu behaved like a responsible adult. He refrained from flamboyant military actions that could kindle the region and compel Obama to deal with body-strewn crises. He effectively froze authorizations for new construction in the settlements, and he announced his acceptance of the principle of a two-state solution. He dismantled West Bank checkpoints and toned down his anti-Iran rhetoric (until his Berlin visit last week, when he returned to the analogy between a nuclear Iran and Auschwitz). He even apologized to Israel’s “elites” for his inflammatory remarks against them in his previous term as prime minister.

At the same time, to preserve his right-wing base, Netanyahu announced new construction for Jews in East Jerusalem and also quarreled with Sweden. Obama will have to swallow Netanyahu’s declarations that Jerusalem is “the eternal capital of the Jewish people.” There are few supporters of the settlements in Congress, but the unity of Jerusalem has been an accepted mantra for many years. Netanyahu has entrenched himself in a position that will enable him to recruit supporters in Washington, while avoiding both blatant lobbying on Capitol Hill and publicly embracing the president’s rivals, as he did with Clinton.

Under these circumstances, Netanyahu has a chance for a good second round with Obama. The president is hungry for a policy achievement, which Netanyahu can provide to him in the form of a construction freeze in the settlements and the renewal of negotiations with the Palestinians. If Netanyahu sticks to his policy of restraint, focuses on Iran and avoids provocations in the territories and on Israel’s borders, he will be received in the White House as a welcome and worthy guest.

But his true test will come when Obama’s timetable reaches the critical point. If Israel is perceived as the party that torpedoed the peace process and spoiled Obama’s 2012 campaign, Netanyahu will be punished – provided, of course, he manages to survive politically until then.