The Shi’i militia, Hezbollah, is rearming north of the River Litani. For its part, Tsahal continues its flights over the Land of the Cedars: averting an incident detrimental to France’s UNIFIL blue helmets will be one of Nicolas Sarkozy’s priorities.
On three occasions in recent weeks, the political authorities in Tel Aviv have denied General Gadi Eisenkot, chief of the North Israel military region, authority to attack, not far from the Syrian border with Lebanon, trucks carrying weapons for Hezbollah arriving from Damascus. “This time the satellite photos that the Israelis showed us seem conclusive,” according to a diplomat close to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who has again voiced his “concern” about this forbidden traffic.
Nine months after the “cessation of hostilities” between Tsahal and the pro-Iranian Shi’i militia, the Jewish state does not, however, want to embark on another conflict with its neighbour. But how much longer can the fragile balance between the forces present in southern Lebanon survive? Each of the leading actors has now clearly asserted its posture. The Lebanese Army is growing bolder. On the other side, Tsahal is strengthening its positions. North of the River Litani, Hezbollah is rearming. And, with its 12,500 men, the UN force (UNIFIL) is growing stronger.
In the short term, the danger stems from increased tension between Tsahal and the Lebanese army, which could prove detrimental to the 1,500 French troops deployed within UNIFIL. Following the appointment in February of its new chief of staff, General Gaby Ashkenazy, the Israeli army has greatly strengthened its defences. At his first meeting with UNIFIL, General Ashkenazy conveyed an extremely clear message: “before, we were lambs; now we will be wolves,” he warned. Israel does not intend to get trapped again. Hence the continuing flights over Lebanese territory by Israeli drones gathering intelligence about Hezbollah but also about UNIFIL’s defence arrangements. France regularly reports these violations of Resolution 1701, which ended last summer’s conflict. To no avail. The new president will have to say whether or not a stiffer posture should be adopted vis-a-vis the Jewish state. But he will also have to authorize the procedure for opening fire, in the event of another Israeli “provocation” against French UNIFIL troops. This is a highly sensitive political issue. After 40 years’ absence, the Lebanese Army is seeking respectability in southern Lebanon. Its soldiers now want to be in charge in their own country. When Tsahal’s bulldozers venture a few meters into Lebanese territory, its soldiers do not hesitate to shoot, as happened 8 February, when an escalation was barely averted. Lebanese troops, which are under-equipped, find themselves caught between two stools. On the one hand UNIFIL is encouraging it to be more assertive in gathering Hezbollah’s weapons. But the regular army has to take account of the “Party of God’s” popularity on the ground.
Hezbollah has established a modus vivendi with UNIFIL, not without first defining some red lines. Regarding the deployment of Leclerc tanks, for instance. “Leclerc equals Merkava equals Israelis,” Hezbollah has told the French, who no longer used tanks for their patrols. In the South, the population could easily turn anti-French. If ordered to do so. This is one of Hezbollah’s strengths. For instance, when the military staff in Paris proposed deploying drones over Lebanon, France’s blue helmets faced a barrage of stones thrown by numerous villagers. “Hezbollah informed us that this was a casus belli,” one senior of officer admitted. Fearing above all an anti-French attack in Lebanon before his departure from the Elysee, Jacques Chirac therefore opposed it. And as though by magic, the 30 instances of stone throwing recorded by UNIFIL in January and February fell to five in March. Since then senior Hezbollah figures have kept saying that they have nothing against UNIFIL. France maintains discreet political and security contacts with a group that it does not consider a terrorist organization. But in this connection, too, Nicolas Sarkozy will have to clarify his relations with the Party of God. This, particularly since Hezbollah is suspected of having established a new line of defence north of the River Litani, hitherto within the UNIFIL zone. Bunkers capable of concealing trucks have apparently been excavated to replace those destroyed in the South. In the East, armed individuals have also been observed reaching camouflaged positions. Confronted with a Hezbollah preparing to confront Tsahal again, and with Lebanese authorities impotent because of the ongoing paralysis of the institutions, UNIFIL fears “another fool’s game.” During their six months patrolling southern Lebanon its bloodhounds have discovered over a hundred bunkers, some of them cunningly established alongside UNIFIL positions, and a great many arms caches concealed under mosques and soccer pitches. To coordinate their attacks on Tsahal, militiamen have even established a telephone network independent of the Lebanese postal service! “How could the Beirut government have been unaware of all that?” one senior UNIFIL official asked; he suspects Hezbollah of concealing weapons in the cellars of homes in southern Lebanon, to which blue helmets do not have access. “We could be unaware of many things,” this UN official complained.
