Sam Edelman, SPME Executive Director, Reports on Herzliya Conference

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The Herzliya Conference held at the IDC, Israel is a unique event. Many refer to it as the Davos of the Middle East. It brings together governmental and military officials, with business and industrial leaders and academics. Held in a tent on the Herzliya campus of the IDC, the four days were an intense experience. The experience could be described as similar to speed dating on steroids (not that I would know anything about speed dating). The program is available at the following web site: http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_Uploads/dbsAttachedFiles/AgendaE(2).pdf

The conference had a number of themes including military issues, economic issues, geo-political issues. What stood out though were three consistent themes. The first theme was evident from the start of the conference. The upheaval in Tunisia and Egypt were foremost in the minds of the participants in the conference and for the conference itself. A number of sessions explored the implications of this paradigmatic shift in the Arab world and its meaning. Much concern was voiced about the future of the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Accords and concern for what some suggested was the Obama administration’s weak support for Mubarak. The Egyptian Consul General to Israel who attended the conference was very popular. It was clearly evident that analysis in the middle of events such as Tunisia and Egypt is difficult at best. The fear that the Moslem Brotherhood had the possibility of playing a larger role in Egypt was expressed by many of the panelists. There also was substantive discussion on the issue of Hezbollah taking over the reins of government in Lebanon. Coupled to the intense discussion of the shifts in the Arab world were the panels on Iran and its growing and powerful influence in the Middle East. On Iran the presentations were mixed between impending doom and impending success. There were a number of presentations by both American and Israeli experts suggesting that the sanctions were indeed working and that unrest in Iran was growing. Yet, there were many speakers who commented on the influence of Iran in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

The second theme of the conference was the issue of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. American government representatives and representatives of US based institutes as well as European Union leaders and Israeli opposition leaders spoke of the need for Israel to take the lead in pushing forward the movement toward jump starting the negotiations. American speakers such as James Jones former NSA director, Robert Wexler, President of the Daniel Abraham Center spoke of the need for the Netanyahu government to use the current upheaval in the Middle East and speed up the negotiations by putting forward an Israeli peace strategy. Tzipi Livni, Kadima Party opposition leader spoke of the need to jump start negotiations and took the Netanyahu government to task for not doing so. The idea of Israel taking the lead in peace negotiations was also pushed by important Israeli intelligence specialist such as Ephraim Halevy, Ephraim Sneh, and others.

The third theme was the theme of criticism. There was criticism of the Obama Administration for its failures in Iran, Egypt, Turkey and the Peace negotiations. Criticism of the Netanyahu Government for economic, political and peace based missteps was expressed by many speakers. Criticism was also expressed by a number of speakers both from the EU and outside on the failures of the EU and Russia for putting undo pressure on Israel, for not being effective in dealing with Iran, for misunderstanding the threat of radical Islamization.

Of special interest for SPME network members, SPME board member Barry Rubin was highlighted at the conference on a very important panel on Turkey. Rubin spoke of the shifts and changes in Turkey and the threat to the Turkish-Israel relationship as well as the threat to the NATO and US relationship with Turkey. There was a wonderful exchange between Barry Rubin and Soli Ozel of Bilgi University and Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation. Ozel defended the Turkish perspective and Rubin and Cohen attacked it.

One last aspect of the Herzliya Conference was the connection of Israeli, NATO, US and EU military experts’ presence at the conference. The highlighted keynote speech by outgoing IDF Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi was a tour de force analysis of the state of the IDF and the shifts and concerns it has with the changing situation in the Middle East on long term IDF planning. Ashkenazi was clearly a charismatic personality with very strong support.

The Herzliya Conference was a timely conference given the events of Egypt and Tunisia and the growing protests in Iran that took place during the conference. What clearly came out of the conference is uncertainty and confusion as to what the world will look like even in a few months from now. Everything we knew in the past is changing. Predicting the future is not going to be an easy thing. It is clear from the conference that uncertainty will the rule for some time to come.

Sam Edelman, SPME Executive Director, Reports on Herzliya Conference

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