With world attention focused on the banks of centrifuges producing enriched uranium for Iran’s illicit nuclear-weapons efforts, International Atomic Energy Agency head Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei is trying to find a non-confrontational solution. The evidence of Teheran’s violations of commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is clearly presented in IAEA reports, but there is little willingness to act.
In the attempt to avoid a standoff, the European troika (Britain, France, and Germany) offered the Iranian leadership rewards for ending production of weapons-grade materials, but without impact.
Now, with time running out, the IAEA is increasingly faced with the obligation of finding Iran in violation and asking the UN Security Council to take action. But the IAEA leadership fears that economic sanctions or authorizing the use of force will lead Iran to renounce the NPT, and destroy what is left of this structure. In the background, there are some unverified reports of preparation for unilateral military action in the event that the IAEA and UN fail to act. Thus, although economic sanctions authorized by the UN Security Council, and with the full support of the US, European Union, and Russia, will be difficult, the alternatives are far worse.
In this framework, recent press reports regarding an IAEA conference on Nuclear Weapons-Free Zones around the world, including the Middle East, do not constitute a major new development. ElBaradei announced the intention to hold such a conference following a visit to Cairo, probably reflecting Egypt’s tendency to use international venues to pressure Israel into changing its policy. For the IAEA, conferences are can’t-lose propositions – they are better than wars and, in the worst case, they unleash a few angry words.
Indeed, under the right circumstances, serious conferences could provide important channels for developing security cooperation. Nuclear Weapons-Free Zones in areas characterized by normal and peaceful relations, such as the South Pacific and in Latin America, are important examples of the benefits of mutual understanding and non-violent dispute resolution. In these cases, and unlike the Middle East realities, the countries all recognize each other, operate embassies and consulates, and do not issue shrill denunciations or boycott Olympic matches. Security cooperation and non-proliferation measures, including mutual inspection and verification, make sense and are good examples of win-win solutions.
On this basis, such conferences could consider requirements for broad security cooperation, which, in turn, would set terms for eventual negotiation of a Middle East Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone. But planning must include a recognition that dozens of similar meetings, conferences, and workshops held in the past 15 years, including the short-lived arms control and regional security (ACRS) workshops, largely turned into dialogues of the deaf. No purpose will be served by yet another forum in which Egypt and the Arab states, whose territory, populations, and resources dwarf those of Israel, again demand that Israel give up its main source of deterrence.
The type of changes that are necessary to move toward a Middle East nuclear weapons free zone will require new approaches to coexistence and security cooperation. Preliminary confidence-building measures to be discussed should encompass policies to prevent surprise attack and reduce conventional-weapons stockpiles. If Dr. ElBaradei and the IAEA can help to move Egypt, Syria, and Iran in this direction, without the usual propaganda tirades, this would mark a major contribution.
At the same time, it is important to note that any benefits from such a conference will be long term. Unless the immediate threat from the Iranian nuclear program is addressed and halted, all of these discussions – no matter how well prepared – will be moot.
Gerald Steinberg is a Professor of Political Studies at Bar Ilan University, and directs the Interdisciplinary Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation. He is member of the Board of Directors of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East spme.org
