The following selection is by Professors Ephraim Yaar and Tamar Hermann. The Peace Index is a project at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University. The purpose of the Center, established in 1992, is to promote systematic research and thinking on issues connected with peacemaking processes and conflict resolution. This selection may also be found in its entirety on TSC’s website: http://www.tau.ac.il/peace/

The education minister’s decision to have the Green Line marked on maps in schoolbooks, and the controversy it sparked, led us to reexplore this month the Israeli Jewish public’s views on the future of the settlements and relations with the Palestinians. In keeping with the Education Committee of the Knesset, and unlike the minister’s position, the rate of those preferring that the Green Line not be marked on the maps is higher than the rate of those who agree with her. Likewise, even though a considerable majority of the Jewish public realizes that it is impossible to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians without evacuating most of the Jewish settlements in the territories, only a minority supports such an evacuation and an even smaller minority thinks the Palestinians would sign a peace treaty in return. At the same time, opinions are divided on the government’s recent decision to expand some settlements in the territories so that they can absorb evacuees from the Gaza Strip. That is, at least some of the opponents of an evacuation oppose a further expansion of settlements, apparently out of worry of aggravating relations with the Palestinians.

In other aspects of relations with the Palestinians, too, there is a certain ambivalence in the public’s positions, resembling or perhaps influenced by the government’s policy on the issue. Despite the prevailing assessments that most of the Palestinians would destroy the state of Israel if they could and that the recent decline in terror attacks was caused first and foremost by preventive Israeli actions and not by Palestinian measures, we found sweeping support in the Jewish public for holding contacts like the recent meeting between Olmert and Abu Mazen. Indeed, a clear-albeit smaller-majority says that if Hamas were to free Gilad Shalit, Israel should agree to talk with its leaders as well.

The execution of Saddam Hussein was a source of satisfaction for the majority of the Israeli Jewish public, and the majority also thinks it was an appropriate measure that will increase the chances of regional calm.

With the onset of the new secular year, it appears that the Jewish public tends to be optimistic about what it will bring for the world and for Israel, and still more for their own personal fortunes.

Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey for December 2006 that was carried out on 1-2 January 2007.

Exactly half the public opposes the education minister’s decision to start marking the Green Line on schoolbook maps while 38% support it (the rest have no clear opinion on the matter). As expected, the support runs very high among Meretz voters-78%, and Labor voters-69%. Kadima voters are divided on the question. Among voters for the rest of the parties, opponents have a clear majority. We checked, therefore, current views about the territories beyond the Green Line. It turns out that a clear majority of 59.5% think or are sure that it is now impossible to reach peace with the Palestinians without evacuating a majority of the Jewish settlements in the territories; 16% are not sure or have no opinion on the issue; and only about one-quarter think or are sure that peace can be reached even without dismantling most of the settlements. Nevertheless, 53% oppose evacuating most of the Jewish settlements in the territories for a full peace agreement and only 34% favor it (the rest have no clear opinion or no opinion on the subject). This opposition could be rooted in the widespread view-68%-that even dismantling most of the settlements would not suffice for the Palestinians to sign a full peace agreement with Israel. A cross-section of the two questions-readiness for a mass evacuation and assessment of the chances that the Palestinians would be satisfied-shows that both among supporters and opponents of an evacuation, a majority thinks it would not be enough to bring the Palestinians to sign a full peace agreement with Israel. As expected, this majority is slightly smaller among the supporters of an evacuation.

Despite the reservations about an evacuation, a majority of the public does not back the government’s decision to expand certain settlements so that they can absorb evacuees from the Gaza Strip. On this question the opinions are split with, in fact, a slight advantage for the opponents: 41% favor an expansion and 45% oppose it, apparently out of concern about aggravating relations with the Palestinians. A segmentation of the responses by voting for the Knesset shows a clear distinction between Left and Right. Eighty-nine percent of Meretz voters and 84% of Labor voters oppose an expansion. A majority-56%-of Kadima voters are against it while 36% support it. In all the other parties, a majority of voters favor it.

This month we returned to the question we asked many times in the past about the basic intentions of the Palestinians. This time, too, a clear majority-69.5%-said that if they could, the Palestinians would destroy the state of Israel. Here we should note that since 1994 there have been only small fluctuations on this question, between two-thirds and three-quarters, compared to the volatility of events. Indeed, a majority of members of all parties except Meretz see this as the Palestinians’ intention. Among Meretz voters, 33% currently think the Palestinians would destroy Israel if they could, 23% oppose this view, and 44% do not know.

Not surprisingly, then, when asked what has caused the decrease in terror attacks in recent times, the majority-42%-ascribe it to the preventive measures by the Israeli security forces and only 29% to an intentional avoidance by the Palestinians for their own reasons. Ten percent attribute equal importance to both factors, 3% to neither of them, and the rest have no clear opinion.

Yet, at the same time, 70% favor having contacts with the Palestinians such as the meeting Prime Minister Olmert recently held with Palestinian president Abu Mazen (only 21% oppose such contacts and the rest have no definite view). Moreover, a clear majority-58%-also favor contacts with Hamas leaders if the organization frees abducted soldier Gilad Shalit (37% oppose this and the rest have no opinion on the matter). Not surprisingly, there is congruence though not identity between support for contacts with the Authority and support for contacts with Hamas. Among those who support meetings like the one between Olmert and Abu Mazen, 66% also favor negotiations with Hamas and 33% oppose them. Among those who oppose the meeting between Olmert and Abu Mazen, however, only 37% support contacts with Hamas and 58.5% are against them.

We wanted to know how Israelis felt about last week’s execution of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Although those who were satisfied with the hanging have the edge, it is not a matter of happiness across the board. Some 19% reported that they were very happy, 27% that they were moderately happy, 13.5% moderately unhappy, and 13% were not happy at all. About one-fourth responded that the event did not affect them emotionally. As for how this measure will influence the future of the region, 53% see it is a positive step and 30% think it will harm regional stability.

And if we are dealing with the future, it turns out the public is quite optimistic about the year that is just beginning. Forty-three percent think it will be better for the world than the preceding one, 29% expect it to be worse, and 27% say things will more or less stay the same. As for Israel, 45% foresee a better year whereas 30% predict a worse one. Here, too, about one-quarter think the situation will not change. And as for personal future, 67% see a better future for themselves in the new year, 7.5% expect a worse one, and 26.5% do not anticipate a change for better or worse. Although the majority are optimistic, as expected we found a clear connection between degree of optimism and income level. Among those with a lower-than-average income, 56% are optimistic; among those with an average one, 74%; and 78% of those with a higher-than-average income are optimistic.